 |
 |
Parsimony, Elegance & Empircism: This Book is Compelling: The work, The Chilling Stars: the New Theory of Climate Change, by Henrik Svensmark is a remarkable book that offers a compelling theory and explanation of climate change-- backed by a tremendous array of empirical findings that both explain recent climate changes, as well as climate events in Earth's distant past. Svensmark's theory is elegant and parsimonious--that is, it is a simple idea that explains a lot of natural phenomenon. It is also consistent with current experimental evidence, and will likely achieve greater explanatory power in 2010 as a large-scale experiment is run to further test the theory. The book is well-written, and provides detailed responses to the major criticisms that have been leveled against this cosmoclimatology-based theory of climate change (i.e. climate change that is affected and primarily caused by elements from the cosmos--the sun, the amount and timing of high energy cosmic rays, our solar system's location in space, etc.) -- responses that are both dispassionate and compelling. As such, the book avoids judging competing theories (such as the computer model based greenhouse gas theories), and avoids the overly politicized and personal destructive rhetoric used by much of the "consensus" based theorists. As an academic, I've spent many years interested in, and studying the history and philosophy of science. I find the current debate about the causes of climate change to be particularly interesting because it illustrates a couple of key points about science the general public is typically unaware of: (1) progress in science is messy, and can often be political-- as rival factions compete for influence; (2) most often, major breakthroughs in a given field come from a person or persons outside of the mainstream of that field; (3) the very essence of scientific discourse and process, and that which differentiates it from politics, is that consensus is irrelevant in the face of stubborn facts that do not fit the prevailing theory. Svensmark and his team have waged an uphill battle, over many years, to even be able to get access to the resources to test their theory. To date, experimental and empirical evidence supports the cosmoclimatological mechanisms that they argue drive climate change, and have driven climate change for millions and millions of years. Their theory is consistent with, and explains the major "Earth snowball events" when the earth was nearly 100% covered in snow. It explains the more recent "middle-ages mini Ice Age", and other major climate events in Earth's history. Overall, the mechanism that Svensmark believes explains climate change appears much more robust and powerful than the prevailing "consensus" computer-based models, in which key observational data is, in fact, inconsistent and even contradictory with those models. If Svensmark and his team are correct, we could receive further validation of his theory in a couple of years when major high-energy particle studies are completed. In the meantime, it appears to me that the most likely place that we will learn about our current and future climate is from those dedicated scientists who study our sun and cosmos, and those climate scientists whose minds are disciplined enough to entertain competing theories and who are bothered by the tremendous amount of evidence that does not fit the current "consensus" models. In the meantime, global politics will be global politics, and we will all be better off, if, in time, we let scientists be scientists and let the scientific process work-- which means we allow "the stubborn facts" that might undermine a theory, any theory, emerge and help us understand the truth.
The Chilling Stars: Anyone who is seriously interested in climate change should read this book. It is very well written for the the lay person, extremely interesting, entertaining, and convincing. The role of cosmic rays related to the earth's climate is traced through geologic time to the present with overwhelming evidence (including current experimental data) to back it up. Whatever one's view is of the subject of global warming, this is a must read for those who wish to enter the debate.
Good synopsis of an alternate theory: This book presents the theory that cosmic rays can cause the production of low clouds which can, in turn, affect climate. Good evidence is presented in support of the ideas, both in the form of experiments run by the co-author of the book, and summaries of data collected by other scientists. The author of the book also does a good job of anticipating questions that might crop up. Along the way, there are some interesting explanations of things like orbital tracks of the solar system through the galaxy, and previous warming and cooling trends on the planet. Finally, this theory isn't presented as an all-or-nothing choice. The possibility of greenhouse gases also contributing to climate change is admitted. In spite of the fact that this is an interesting book about the effects of cosmic rays, I have a number of concerns. First of all, this is basically a re-hashing of an old argument about extra-terrestrial factors being responsible for global warming. Many scientists and writers who work on greenhouse-based global warming claim that such factors are not enough to account for the amount of warming we are seeing. This is an issue that scientists will have to work out as most laypeople do not have the wherewithall to decide the issue. Second, this book seems to be in disagreement with some of the facts about historical events such as mass extinctions and previous warming spells as they are described by Peter Ward in his book, Under A Green Sky. Finally, the authors repeatedly complain about being marginalized by the global warming powers that be. While some of that is understandable, an excessive amount can become a red flag for me. This book is engaging and worth reading. The authors give the impression that more experiments and data should be becoming available soon, so I would suspect that if they are on to something, we should hear about it in the near future.
Global warming research: Who would have thought it. Exploding stars create gamma rays that bombard us constantly and the rate that they come in coorelates to global warming (and cooling). Wow. I have been researching global warming from numerous angles including all the highly politicized claims. Fear drives most of what you hear so finding other reasons for the behavior of our environment is a fair endeavor. It balances fear with science. This book is well researched - non emotional - and comes to grounded conclusions. It is particularly helpful as a counterpoint to those who are apt to believe in anything they hear. It gives you a lot to discuss at cocktail parties...
Disciples of Al Gore Will Ban This Book: The Chilling Stars will embarrass the committee that awarded Al Gore the Nobel Prize. Here is hard science, not pseudoscience. If this were four centuries ago Al Gore would declare a "consensus" that the Earth is the center of the universe. Henrik Svensmark would play the part of Galileo. Challenging the majority is often met with censure and ridicule but that is how science advances. Fortunately, the Pope isn't Urban VIII, threatening to burn Svensmark at the stake for heresy.
| Author: | Henrik Svensmark | | Binding: | Paperback | | Dewey Decimal Number: | 551.6 | | EAN: | 9781840468151 | | ISBN: | 1840468157 | | Number Of Pages: | 256 | | Publication Date: | 2007-03-25 |
|